Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 29 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 1073 (N13E35), 1074 (N19W57), and 1075 (S20W02). All three regions are a beta magnetic classification. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds averaging around 350 km/s, however there was an eight hour period of southward Bz of -13 nT. The increase in activity is probably the result of the CME observed on 24 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm conditions for 30-31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 01 June as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 May 073
  Predicted   30 May-01 Jun  074/075/075
  90 Day Mean        29 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 May  020/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  020/035-012/030-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%25%
Minor storm25%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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