Viewing archive of Monday, 21 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 21 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1082 (N27W23) produced todays only flare, an isolated B1 event at 21/1912Z. A filament near N19W18 disappeared sometime between 21/0207Z and 21/1200Z, and was associated with a CME on the west limb. Coronagraph data indicates the CME is not earth directed
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with an isolated unsettled period at 21/0600-0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 072
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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