Viewing archive of Friday, 2 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 1084 (S20W06) produced a B1 flare at 01/2054Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low throughout the forecast period (03-05 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an isolated active period on day 1 (03 July). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days 2 and 3 (04-05 July) as the effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jul 073
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  073/074/074
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  006/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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