Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 July 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1084 (S19W32) was quiet and stable. A new, emerging flux region was observed near N19W38.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days (05 - 07 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocity was steady at about 600 km/s through 04/0700Z when speeds gradually decayed to near 500 km/s by the end of the summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05 - 07 July).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 072
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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