Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04 August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 081
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  082/084/084
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%40%10%
Major-severe storm05%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%15%25%
Minor storm25%45%15%
Major-severe storm10%35%01%

All times in UTC

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