Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 24 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. No flares were observed during the period. New Region 1101 (N12E79) was numbered today and is magnetically classified as an alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (25-27 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. The increased activity was associated with a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moving into geoeffective position. ACE solar wind readings indicated an enhanced interplanetary field (IMF) intensity (peak 22 nT at 2241Z) combined with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -14 nT at 0104Z) with an increase in velocities from 358 km/s to 709 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 August), at mostly unsettled levels on day two (26 August), and at quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 August) as the effects of the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 074
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  074/075/075
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  013/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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