Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 07 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1105 (N19W77) produced a B4/Sf flare on 07/0528Z. An 11 degree filament near N11E19 disappeared between 07/1359-1439Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event on days one and two (08-09 September). Solar activity is expected to be very low on day three (10 September) as Region 1105 (N19W77) rotates off the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active period occurred between 07/0900-1200Z. Solar wind velocity, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated an increase to approximately 500 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods during days one and two (08-09 September), due to enhanced solar wind velocity. Day three (10 September) is expected to be quiet as the solar wind speed is forecast to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 076
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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