Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 07 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 1105 (N19W77)
produced a B4/Sf flare on 07/0528Z. An 11 degree filament near
N11E19 disappeared between 07/1359-1439Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event on days one and
two (08-09 September). Solar activity is expected to be very low on
day three (10 September) as Region 1105 (N19W77) rotates off the
visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active
period occurred between 07/0900-1200Z. Solar wind velocity, as
measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated an increase to
approximately 500 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for isolated active periods during days one and two (08-09
September), due to enhanced solar wind velocity. Day three (10
September) is expected to be quiet as the solar wind speed is
forecast to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 076 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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