Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A B9 x-ray event
occurred at 15/1715Z. The source appeared to be a region rotating
around the southeast limb. Region 1106 (S20E18) appeared to be
slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (16-18 September). C-class events are likely
from the new region rotating onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods observed at some locations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (16-17
September) due to possible effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Day three (18 September) is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 081 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 083/085/086 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 007/008-007/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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