Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 21 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. New Region 1109 (N19E75) was numbered today as it rotated onto the visible disk. Region 1109 produced a few C-class events, the largest was a C1 flare at 21/0738Z. Region 1108 (S30E14) decreased in areal coverage and sunspot number but has retained its bi-polar magnetic classification. Region 1106 (S22W69) has continued to decay and now has an alpha magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (22-24 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (22-23 September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Mostly unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Sep 085
  Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        21 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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