Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. New Region 1109 (N19E75) was numbered today as it rotated
onto the visible disk. Region 1109 produced a few C-class events,
the largest was a C1 flare at 21/0738Z. Region 1108 (S30E14)
decreased in areal coverage and sunspot number but has retained its
bi-polar magnetic classification. Region 1106 (S22W69) has continued
to decay and now has an alpha magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (22-24 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two
(22-23 September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Mostly unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 September).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 085 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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