Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 September 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N22E27) was classified as an Ehi group with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and produced a few B-class flares during the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. However, there is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream continued.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during days one and two (26-27 September). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (28 September) as a weak, recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 083
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  083/083/082
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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