Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 1112 (S18E65) was numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity for the next three days (10 - 12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (10 October). By day two (11 October), activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream coupled with glancing blow effects from the 06 October full-halo CME. Day three (12 October) will see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 076
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  078/078/080
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  005/005-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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