Viewing archive of Monday, 11 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S19E40) showed little change during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery observed a filament eruption at approximately 10/2121Z. The filament was 17 degrees long and centered near S08E48, just north of Region 1112. A slow-moving, CME was detected at 11/0012Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery and did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Activity levels were quiet through 11/0600Z. By 11/0900Z, geomagnetic activity increased at all latitudes to predominately unsettled to active levels with an isolated minor storm period observed between 11/1200 - 1500Z. At approximately 11/0300Z, measurements at the ACE spacecraft observed flucuations in the B component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) along with a sharp increase in density and a slight increase in wind velocity. The IMF Bz reached a maximum of -13 nT at 11/0915Z, and remained southward through 11/1805Z. The IMF Bt hit a maximum of 14 nT at 11/0936Z while density reached a peak of 47 p/cc at 11/0509Z. Wind velocities increased slightly from a low of 325 km/s at the beginning of the summary period and peaked near 375 km/s at 11/1826Z. The increase in activity is most likely a result of a glancing blow from the 06 October full-halo CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods on day one (12 October) due to lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected by days two and three (13 - 14 October).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 075
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  008/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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