Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 October 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E28) grew in area and spots as well as increased in magnetic complexity. It produced a B4 x-ray flare at 23/2011Z. The characteristics of Region 1115 (S29W36) did not change much, though it produced a B3 x-ray flare at 26/1738Z. The leading edge of the CME from a disappearing filament on 21 October was visible on both STEREO A and B HI1 images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be predominately low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 1-3 (24-26 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with a period of minor to major storming at high latitudes between 23/1200-1500Z as the result of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds were near or above 650 km/s throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the aforementioned CME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 084
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  012/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  015/020-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%50%
Minor storm50%50%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm50%50%40%
Major-severe storm40%40%20%

All times in UTC

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