Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1121 (S20E70) was numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 04/0253Z. Region 1120 (N38E04) continued to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance of moderate conditions for the next three days (05-07 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A period of unsettled conditions was observed at mid-latitudes between 04/12-15Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (05-07 November).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Nov 079
  Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        04 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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