Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1128 (S16E59) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed has remained steady at approximately 450 km/s throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for days one and two (26-27 November). Day three (28 November) is expected to be predominately quiet with a slight chance for isolated unsettled periods. The increase in activity is forecast due to the CME observed on 24 November becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 078
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  078/079/080
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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