Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1127 (N24W71) was quiet and stable. Region 1128 (S14E35) has decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (28-30 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Observations at the ACE satellite indicated the onset of recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speeds reached approximately 450 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an isolated active period on day one (28 November). The increase is forecast due to elevated solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Observations from the Behind satellite indicate the enhanced wind speeds should subside during day one. Days two and three (29-30) November are expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 077
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  077/077/078
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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