Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1135 (N19W11) is
spotless today. No significant events were observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(19-20 December) due to the influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet conditions are expected for day three (21 December).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 081 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 080/078/078 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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