Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period with only a few low-level B-class events observed. Region 1140 (N34E01) developed two spots to the NNE of the large H-type spot and was reclassified as a Cso Beta. Region 1141 (N34W76) exhibited decay in area and spot count while Region 1142 (S13W18) showed similar decay, predominately in the trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity, all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The ACE satellite observed a sector boundary crossing from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) magnetic field at approximately 05/1830Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by 06 January.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 088
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  088/088/086
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  007/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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