Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1147
(N27E65) produced isolated to occasional B-flares. Region 1147 is
currently classified as a Dso-Beta group with 5 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels during the period (17-19 January) with a
chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (17 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (18 January), due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected again on day three
(19 January).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 080 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/082 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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