Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1150 (S22E50) has remained stable while producing several B-class events. Region 1151 (N11W71) decayed to spotless plage late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next three days (30 January - 01 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days (30-31 January). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected late on day three (01 February) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 081
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb  080/080/078
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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