Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 14 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate Region 1158 (S21W14)
produce an M2/1N flare at 14/1745Z associated with a 150 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1479 km/s).
Region 1158 also produced seven C-class events the largest being a
C9 at 14/1253. This region continued to grow throughout the period
and is currently magnetically classified as a Beta-gamma type
spotgroup with an area of 450 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an M5 or greater x-ray event for days
one thru three (15-17 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse was
observed at 14/1600Z (12nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a
shock arrival at 14/1456Z. Solar wind velocities increased to
approximately 410 km/s and total field increased to around 20 nT
following the shock. The source of todays activity is likely an
east limb event that occurred at 11/2146Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for
isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February).
The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from
yesterdays M6 event.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 113 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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