Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1166 (N08W52)
produced an M1/2n flare at 12/0443 and a C9/1F at 12/1527Z. Both
flares were accompanied by a Type II radio emissions and waves in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1166 maintained its complex
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics and ended the period as an
Ekc type spot group. Regions 1169 (N19W22) and 1172 (N12E54) were
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (13-15 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
late on 11 March; the phi angle shifting to the positive sector at
approximately 11/2200Z. Solar wind speed at ACE rose steadily,
ending the period near 550 km/s as the coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. The initially southward Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field turned mostly northward after
11/0000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next three days under the
continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. There is a
slight chance for minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 121 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 012/018-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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