Viewing archive of Monday, 25 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very low to low with a slight chance for a M-class flare from Region 1195 (S16W12) for the next 3 days (26-28 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (26-27 April), and quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3 (28 April) due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 112
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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