Viewing archive of Monday, 2 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. A filament disappeared from
S20E33 around 14Z. A concurrent CME was visible leaving off the east
limb based on the NASA SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph, though it does not
initially appear that it will be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (3-5 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions
due to coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream effects (HSS). Solar
winds speeds were sustained above 640 km/s during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (3 May) as CH HSS
effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are forecasted for days 2 and
3 (4-5 May).
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 110 Predicted 03 May-05 May 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 010/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 008/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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