Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Region 1203 (N18W55)
produced an isolated B-class flare. There were four spot groups on
the visible disk, none of which were magnetically complex, including
newly numbered Regions 1208 (N13E49) and 1209 (N35E08).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (09 - 11 May) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 May). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected on day 3 (11
May) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 102 Predicted 09 May-11 May 102/102/100 90 Day Mean 08 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/005-008/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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