Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234
(S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified
as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low
through the period (10 - 12 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1
(10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of
the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 - 12 June. There will be a
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous
orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 25% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 088 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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