Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low. Isolated B-class x-ray flares occurred. A B8 flare at 12/1714Z was from a region just beyond the northeast limb. Region 1234 (S15E18) was the only spotted region on the disk and remained a simply-structured Bxo group. A prominence erupted from the west limb near N09W90 during 12/1341 - 1443Z and was associated with a CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 565 km/s and did not appear to be Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low during the period (13 - 15 June) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. An active period was observed at Boulder during 12/1200 - 1500Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds in the 436 to 485 km/s range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly enhanced, likely associated with recent activity in old Region 1226 (S20, L=037), which departed the west limb on 09 June.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 - 14 June) with a chance for active levels due CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15 June) as the CH HSS begins to subside. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1 (13 June).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 085
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  084/084/084
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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