Viewing archive of Friday, 1 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. There were several B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours from Region 1243 (N17E22) and new Region 1244 (N16W10). Region 1244 emerged on the disk and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. ACE solar wind data indicated velocities up to 450 km/s consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (2 July). Days 2 and 3 (3 - 4 July) are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 088
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  010/015-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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