Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. New Regions 1254 (S22E59) and 1255 (N17E45) were numbered overnight and are classified as Cro-beta and Axx-alpha type groups respectively. Region 1254 produced a few B-class flares but all other regions on the disk have been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with isolated C-class activity likely for the next three days (15-17 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to residual effects from the CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on day one (15 July) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (16-17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 094
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  094/094/094
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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