Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1254 (S26W54) and Region 1259 (N23E02) are classified as Cao type spot groups. Both regions remained quiet and stable. Multiple B class x-ray events were observed, the largest a B5 at 23/1449 Z. The origin of the activity is just beyond the east limb and is likely returning Region 1246 (L=329).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (24-26 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated a decrease in velocity from 600 km/s to about 500 km/s during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of isolated active periods for the next three days (24-26 July). The activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of another coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 088
  Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  088/088/086
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  006/006-005/005-009/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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