Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest flare of the period, a C1 event at 06/0912Z, was
from an unnumbered region in the southeast quadrant. There are
currently 9 numbered regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (07 - 09 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (07 - 09
October).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 124 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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