Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at
19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is
considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 1325 (N16E82) was numbered today and is an
Hax-alpha region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 147 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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