Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 08 2355 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2011 * * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period (09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07 November CME are felt.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 181
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%13%
Minor storm02%02%03%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%16%
Minor storm13%13%20%
Major-severe storm08%08%14%

All times in UTC

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