Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20,L088), which rotated off of the west limb, produced an M1/1f at 15/2235Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (17 - 19 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (17 November). By day two and three (18 - 19 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods, in response to a possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection observed late on 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 142
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  005/005-007/007-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active06%10%10%
Minor storm02%02%02%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active16%17%17%
Minor storm17%22%22%
Major-severe storm10%13%13%

All times in UTC

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