Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S22E16) has been the most active region on the
disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to
grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity
(beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the
period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CMEs have been
observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth
directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high
latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the
arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft
indicated this transients arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight
increase in the lower energy protons, an increase in solar wind
speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an
increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm
flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(04-06 December).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 160 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Minor storm | 08% | 07% | 07% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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