Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. One C3/Sf flare was observed
at 01/0734Z from Region 1389 (S22E17). This region diminished in
spot count and magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. The
remaining regions were stable. The 10cm solar flux was estimated.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(01-03 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Hourly averages of solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft were about 360 km/s while Bz was near -2 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
conditions for the next three days (02-04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 130 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 000/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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