Viewing archive of Friday, 6 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 06/1125Z from Region 1392 (N19W32). A new emerging flux region was numbered today as Region 1394 (N18E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days (07-09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing from around 330 - 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (07-08 January) as the effects the CH HSS wane. A return to mostly quiet levels is expected on day three (09 January).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 136
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  009/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%15%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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