Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1393 (N17W70) produced the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and 1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 - 460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January). On days 2 - 3 (12 - 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 129
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  004/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%20%20%

All times in UTC

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