Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 x-ray event began at 12/0754Z, peaked at 12/1001Z, and then persisted until 12/1216Z. It is believed that the source of the event was from beyond the East limb. A limb event CME was observed by LASCO C2/C3 and also by the STEREO coronagraphs. The event is not believed to have a geoeffective potential.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (13-15 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on days 1-2 (13-14 January) due to coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels for day 3 (15 January).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 117
  Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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