Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15) produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s). Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z (estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for active levels on 21 January due to the expected arrival of todays CME.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 157
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  007/006-009/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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