Viewing archive of Monday, 20 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C4/Sf at 0509Z
from Region 1421 (N18E32). Region 1422 (N16W11) produced the other
two C-flares and is currently the largest group on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with some isolated
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicated
the influence of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on the
first day (21 Feb) due to continued effects from the high speed
stream. A decrease to mostly quiet levels is predicted for the
second day (22 Feb) and quiet levels are expected to continue for
the third day (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 111 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/010-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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