Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
x-ray event during the period, a C3 from Region 1434 (S20W66) at
19/2204Z. The solar disk consists of six spotted regions, all of
which were relatively quiet and stable. Two new regions were
assigned today: Region 1438 (S15E69) and Region 1439 (N25W79).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some isolated
unsettled periods for the next three days (20-22 March).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 100 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 095/090/085 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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