Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N06W34)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares during the first half of
the period. Region 1455 showed minor spot and penumbral decay during
the period and simplified from a beta-gamma to a beta magnetic
classification. New Regions 1458 (N07E70) and 1459 (S15E79) were
numbered. Neither were remarkable, but analysis was hampered due to
limb proximity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (15 - 17 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar
wind observations indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) with speeds in the 499 to 614 km/s range.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 April) with
a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
2 - 3 (16 - 17 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 098 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 013/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
AR 3825 218Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1446Some weird thing on farside seismic signature 11Density and Temperature ?s 3Density and Temperature ?s 0
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 158.3 -54.2 |