Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of a
few low-level C-class flares; the largest was a C3/1f at 0443Z from
Region 1470 (S15E21). Region 1470 decayed to spotless plage during
the period. Region 1471 (S21E34) is the largest group on the disk
with 310 millionths area but only managed to produce B-level
activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (02-04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (02-04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 110 Predicted 02 May-04 May 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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