Viewing archive of Friday, 4 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The background x-ray levels, as measured by the GOES-15
spacecraft, have shown a gradual increase to C-class levels. This
increase is attributed to a new unnumbered sunspot region rotating
onto the northeast limb. At the time of the report, SDO
intensitygram images showed only a part of this new region. Due to
the limb location, actual sunspot and magnetic classification has
yet to be determined. The other sunspot regions on the disk remained
rather stable for the past 24 hours. A CME, first observed in STEREO
Ahead COR2 imagery at 04/0309Z, was determined to not be Earth
directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (05 - 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have
remained at background levels, below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 -
07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 114 Predicted 05 May-07 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 04 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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