Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 May 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares occurred during the period. A CME associated with a filament eruption was observed in LASCO imagery off the southwest quadrant of the solar disk, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 110
  Predicted   27 May-29 May  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        26 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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