Viewing archive of Monday, 4 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1496 (N17E17) produced a C1/Sf at 04/0936Z. New Regions 1500
(N09W34), 1501 (N07E15) and 1502 (S17E41) were numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days
(05-07 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds remained steady around 600
km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt was stable at
approximately 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF reached a maximum
deviation of -12 nT between 04/0800 - 1000Z, but varied between -5
to +2 nT for the majority of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on day one (05 June), due to continued effects from
the CH HSS. Days two and three (06-07 June) are expected to be
unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, as the effects
from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 128 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 014/022-014/018-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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