Viewing archive of Friday, 8 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1494 (S18W33) produced a C7 flare at 08/0307Z. The flare was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively. A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the southern hemisphere. Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s. A subsequent model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th. Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO 304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2. A second eruption near N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z. The first eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being evaluted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days (09-11 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Data from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME from 05 June around 08/0800Z. A couple of unsettled periods followed, but most of the day was quiet. Wind speed at ACE declined throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June). The CME from 06 June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3 (11 June).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 124
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  006/005-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%30%30%

All times in UTC

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