Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504 (S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the disk. Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the period. The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a C2 flare at 12/0315Z. All three of these regions have shown signs of growth. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z. This was followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z. Solar wind observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from 11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT. In addition, the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on the 11th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13). Quiet levels are expected for 14-15 June.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 141
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  014/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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