Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1512 (S15E11) and 1513 (S15E58) each produced low-level C-class flares as well as occasional optical subflares. Region 1512 showed spot and penumbral growth in its intermediate portion along with an increase in magnetic complexity and was classified as a Dki/beta-gamma. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was classified as a Cso/beta. New Regions 1514 (S16E55) and 1515 (S16E70) were numbered and were classified as a Bxo/beta and Cso/beta, respectively. Region 1515 produced occasional optical subflares during the latter half of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (28 - 30 June) with a chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with unsettled to active periods detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). A further increase to unsettled to active levels is expected on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jun 106
  Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/007-009/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%40%

All times in UTC

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